What Are Dead Cert Horse Racing Tips

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There are only two dead certainties in life and they are death and taxes and that’s it. I am not trying to be negative here but like horses it is no dead certainty that your horse will cross the finishing line first. We see on Betfair horses getting shinned at decimal odds of 1.02 etc. I can never understand why punters bet or trade at such ridiculous odds. They risk 1000s of pounds for a small return and believe me your boat will come in!

When we look at horse race you can narrow the field down to a few possibilities that could win a horse race. I have never given out dead cert horse racing tips to my customers. I followed the great champion hurdler Istabraq for years and I remember backing him at Aintree April 1998 were he was beaten by a head by Pridwell. The horse Istabraq was 4/7F that day and I thought it was a dead cert horse racing bet. I piled in on hit after my success at the Cheltenham festival back in March, how wrong I was. Let’s put it this way I learned a very big lesson that day.

I believe dead cert racing tips is a bad phrase and is misleading and can lead novice punters astray. These punters will learn eventually via their pocket. A better approach is to apply a logical method to horse racing tips. I apply a strength value of 1 to 10 were 10 is very strong. The value of 10 does not mean that it’s a dead cert racing tip in that it will win.

When I use my horse racing systems I automatically evaluate a horse’s strength and apply a strength value of 1 to 10 to each horse. A value of 5 I would expect the horse to at least finish in the first 3 positions. A value below 5 is usually double figured priced horses which I like betting on. I give a strength value of 6 to 10 to horse tips that are normally priced at decimal odds of 3.0 and below. A horse at evens has a 50% chance of winning so it’s not a dead cert racing tip. I have layed horses in play that get beaten at 1.31.

One final comment do not get sucked into tipping services that offer dead cert horse racing tips.

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Monday, 4 October

Race 1
Race Summary: SHIMMERLINDT is coupled with BALOUCHI - both found support on debut and weren't disgraced - they will surely come on. However, work rider Sam Mosia rides the latter and could have the advantage. MARACA GINGER finished runner-up in his last 3 runs and shouldn't be far off again. VOLLUTO, TRUE BRIT, BACK TO BASICS and RED CARPET GIRL are looking for money. Respect any support for newcomer EAGLE RIVER.
Selections:
#7 Balouchi, #14 Shimmerlindt, #3 Maraca Ginger, #8 Eagle River
Race 2
Race Summary: Tricky. WHAT A MIRACLE was beaten when a hot favourite last time but found problems. She comes off a rest and could atone. BELTWAY also found excuses for her last run and should be given another chance. QUICK RUN has been threatening for a while and could get a deserved win. STORMY LASS was a bit flat in her 2nd run but could strike fresh. LOVE BITE and SUPER TANAYE could place.
Selections:
#5 What A Miracle, #1 Quick Run, #6 Beltway, #11 Stormy Lass
Race 3
Race Summary: RETALLICK showed determination in his first run as a gelding and could prove a hard nut to crack. IRFAANS BOY will be all out to give him a run for money and won't be far off. ACE OF SPADES is looking for Trifecta money while PHINDA MZALA and SPARTAN WARRIOR warrant inclusion in Quartets.
Selections:
#3 Retallick, #1 Irfaans Boy, #4 Ace Of Spades, #2 Phinda Mzala
Race 4
Race Summary: BOLD RANSOM never travelled well last time when behind VALYRIAN KING and RAPID FIRE but is better than that and it could be a different story this time. It could go to the wire all round. MIND READER comes off a rest and off a handy weight could get into the action. IKIGAI is racing fresh but has ability and could flash up half done.
Selections:
#2 Bold Ransom, #5 Valyrian King, #7 Rapid Fire, #6 Mind Reader
Race 5
Race Summary: Difficult to assess with mixed form lines. However, ALESIAN CHIEF looks to have most scope for improvement and gets the nod. He accounted for MARENGO last time and they meet on identical terms. GODSWOOD hangs inwards when under pressure but has a victory over ALESIAN CHIEF which he needs to confirm. SINGFONICO, EPIC DREAM, BIG BLUE MARBLE and ROLLWITHTHEPUNCHES could upset the apple-cart.
Selections:
#6 Alesian Chief, #5 Marengo, #3 Godswood, #1 Singfonico
Race 6
Race Summary: This is not a strong field. In her first run at this track 16-1 shot PUFF OF SMOKE won like an odds-on chance, despite a saddle slip, but has been penalised heavily. Well beaten behind her was PICK A LILY who won her maiden subsequently sporting blinkers. She has a pull of 7.5kg and could turn it around. MEET THE CAPTAIN and HEAR THE TRUMPET come into the picture. They are triers and could finish off strongly. DRAGON QUEEN could get into the reckoning.
Selections:
#7 Meet The Captain, #5 Hear The Trumpet, #4 Pick A Lily, #1 Puff Of Smoke
Race 7
Race Summary: WAYA YIRE wasn't disgraced when needing her post-maiden run and has plenty of scope for improvement. Other 3-year-old in the race LA VALLIERE, was ignored in the betting on debut but strolled in and the form has been franked. SPANISH SONG is holding form and could get into the mix again. There shouldn't be much to choose between FEATHER THE NEST and SPACE RACE on collateral form. Lightly raced END OF ROCK is still improving. More could earn.
Selections:
#8 Waya Yire, #2 La Valliere, #6 Spanish Song, #7 Space Race
Race 8
Race Summary: UN DEUX TROIS could shoulder top weight to victory in her first try over a marathon trip. RAINY SEASON enjoyed his last run over this course and distance and could confirm with WYLIE THE GREAT. MASAAKEN will be at peak fitness and should make her presence felt. Bottom weight DUTCHESSBURNEDETTE has a shout if sees out the extra 600m. Others are looking for minor money.
Selections:
#1 Un Deux Trois, #2 Rainy Season, #6 Masaaken, #8 Wylie The Great
Race 9
Race Summary: FASINADA beat WEDDING BLISS by 2.75 lengths recently but is 2kg worse off which could bring them close together over the extra 200m. CAP ESTEL is maturing and could go in again after an easy maiden win. AMBERGLO STAR is improving with racing and could grab them late. LUCKY SHAMROCK and recent maiden winner OLYMPIC SILK could get into the mix.
Selections:
#5 Cap Estel, #1 Fasinada, #2 Wedding Bliss, #9 Amberglo Star
Best Win: #3 RETALLICK
Best Value Bet: #5 CAP ESTEL
Best Longshot: #5 CAP ESTEL

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Tuesday, 5 October

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Race 1
Race Summary: Competitive opener. ANTICO AMORE has shown promise in both starts and improved with the benefit of experience last time. She should continue to progress and may enjoy this shorter trip having shown pace over further. SHE'S MY CAPTAIN was backed on debut and ran with promise. She will also come on with experience and should have a role to play. ROCK ON CAPTAIN was making her Cape debut when finishing ahead of that rival last time and is another who should have more to offer with improved fitness on her side. SUNLIT PATH, RIO SUPREMO and TASTE MAKER could make their presence felt.
Selections:
#7 Antico Amore, #9 She's My Captain, #3 Rock On Captain, #1 Sunlit Path
Race 2
Race Summary: Well-related IMPOSING ANGEL got going late after a slow start when 2nd over course and distance last time in open company. She faces similar opposition on this occasion and will be hard to hold out if jumping on terms. Stablemate SALAASA is a well-bred newcomer who is rumoured to be quick so must be respected if attracting market support. Male rivals EMPIRE GLORY and CAPTAIN MIKE concede weight to those but have the form and experience to pose a threat.
Selections:
#6 Imposing Angel, #1 Empire Glory, #3 Captain Mike, #7 Salaasa
Race 3
Race Summary: Fascinating contest for a field of this size. Unbeaten ZAPATILLAS confirmed the promise of his debut win by following up in a 3yo feature over a similar trip last month. He is open to any amount of improvement racing around a bend for the first time and, as such, could prove better than rated so may well keep his 100% record intact. NO LAYING UP is well-in and likely to give a better account after a season pipe-opener when having excuses. HYDE PARK and AFRICAN RAIN have a bit to find on these terms but arrive in good form with race fitness on their side, so could emerge as dangers.
Selections:
#5 Zapatillas, #3 African Rain, #2 Hyde Park, #4 No Laying Up
Race 4
Race Summary: Intriguing race featuring a number of promising 3yo's, including four last-start maiden winners. Debut scorers WINCHESTER MANSION and MR MASTER STARTER could be anything - both are open to any amount of improvement, though preference is for the former who scored over track and trip, whereas the latter won in KZN and returns from a rest. RESONATE concedes weight to all but impressed when last seen and has the best of the draws, so could follow up. ANGRY WARRIOR wasn't winning out of turn 9 weeks ago and should improve to be competitive. YOU KNOW WHO and filly TREASURE HUNT have claims too. Open!
Selections:
#1 Resonate, #3 Winchester Mansion, #8 Mr Master Starter, #4 You Know Who
Race 5
Race Summary: Another cracking handicap contest. FUTURE PRINCE was impressive when turning it on late to win on debut in heavy going over 1200m and, on the evidence of that display, should have more to offer stepped up in trip with that run under the belt. PACAYA was unlucky when beaten by FORT RED last time out but could turn the tables on that rival with the step up to this trip likely to suit. Well-related SILENT TRIGGER is another likely to improve over this distance and could fight it out. Hard-knocking handicappers PATH OF CHOICE, DOUBLE CHARGE and TICKET TO RIDE will keep those rivals honest. Tricky!
Selections:
#6 Future Prince, #7 Pacaya, #4 Silent Trigger, #1 Fort Red
Race 6
Race Summary: Must-watch contest featuring a trio of well-bred 3yo colts with big reputations and Classic ambitions. UNIVERSAL and VOLDEMORT confirmed the promise of good debut outings to win at the second time of asking, and both are likely to make further improvement. The former was super impressive, winning by more than NINE lengths last time. The manner of that display makes him the one to beat. SILVER FALCON fits a similar profile and caught the eye on handicap debut last time, when probably in need of the run. He too will improve stepped up in trip and could prove the biggest threat. Good race!
Selections:
#3 Universal, #8 Silver Falcon, #7 Voldemort, #6 Star Of The South
Race 7
Race Summary: Last season's Equus 2yo Nominee WATERBERRY LANE makes his Cape and 3yo debut under just 52.5kg but faces a stern examination of his Classic credentials. A 9-week break since his 4th in a 2yo Grade 1 would've done him good and there's little reason to suggest he wouldn't have trained on - one to beat. SUPER SILVANO sported blinkers when downing a good field over 1250m at this venue last time out and the step up to this trip with the headgear retained should suit - danger. HIS CHOICE, CAT DADDY and ADIOS AMIGOS are those most likely to pose a threat of the remainder.
Selections:
#8 Waterberry Lane, #1 Super Silvano, #4 Cat Daddy, #3 His Choice
Race 8
Race Summary: As is the trend throughout the day, another pair of smart 3yo colts clash in what could prove a pointer to 3yo features later this summer. Highly regarded VAN HUNKS accounted for winners (as a maiden) at this track over 1400m when last seen and this step up in trip should bring further improvement from this son of Silvano. MASTER REDOUTE was on debut when finishing 2.35 lengths off that rival before shedding his maiden tag over track and trip. He's 0.5kg better off so should get closer with experience under the belt. AUS BOB and VIDA FUTURA could get into the mix with SECRET GLIDER.
Selections:
#3 Van Hunks, #5 Master Redoute, #4 Aus Bob, #7 Vida Futura
Best Win: #6 IMPOSING ANGEL
Best Value Bet:
Best Longshot: #6 FUTURE PRINCE